More Damned Lies and Statistics: How Numbers Confuse Public Issues.

More Damned Lies and Statistics: How Numbers Confuse Public Issues. MORE DAMNED LIES AND STATISTICS: HOW NUMBERS CONFUSE PUBLIC ISSUES JOEL BEST UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA PRESS "UC Press" redirects here, but this is also an abbreviation for University of Chicago PressUniversity of California Press, also known as UC Press, is a publishing house associated with the University of California that engages in academic publishing. , 2004 $19.95, 217 pages In a time when we are inundated in��un��date?tr.v. in��un��dat��ed, in��un��dat��ing, in��un��dates1. To cover with water, especially floodwaters.2. with information through variousforms of media, discerning fact from fiction, truth from lies, andreality from idealism idealism,the attitude that places special value on ideas and ideals as products of the mind, in comparison with the world as perceived through the senses. In art idealism is the tendency to represent things as aesthetic sensibility would have them rather than as has become a daily task. When confronted withstatistics, do we ever think about where these numbers come from, howthey are produced, how they are interpreted, or how we interpret them?Best provides us with some interesting ideas regarding the misuse ofinformation in the book, More Damned Lies and Statistics: How NumbersConfuse Public Issues, a sequel to Damned Lies and Statistics. Best begins with "Missing Numbers" in chapter 1. Thissection warns the reader that most likely, not all of the information ina study has been accounted for. This may be because the data in a studyare too difficult to find and, in some cases, it is impossible to take atrue count. Numbers are often misinterpreted regarding social problems.For example, a single catastrophic event, such as the Columbine columbine, in botanycolumbine(kŏl`əmbīn), any plant of the genus Aquilegia, temperate-zone perennials of the family Ranunculaceae (buttercup family), popular both as wildflowers and as garden flowers. schoolshooting See also: School shooting is a term popularized in American and Canadian media to describe gun violence at educational institutions, especially the mass murder or spree killing of people connected with an in 1999 or the attack on the World Trade Center in 2001, hasgreat emotional power; therefore, with influence from the media, we tendto look at that one event, and overlook the lesser or absent numbers inthe more common events within the same social problem, that is, actualnumber of school violence incidents or terrorist attacks. The distortionskews our perception regarding the extent of certain social problemstoday and how the numbers compare to those of the past. Sometimes, it is just too difficult to calculate the numbers.Researchers disagree about what to count, there are intangible factors,and people place values on different factors. Other times, informationis intentionally left out. Since money and time are limited, researchersmust decide to leave out certain research. Often incorrect or irrelevantnumbers are included, and those statistics are repeated and spread.Anytime numbers are gathered for research, the process may not beperfect. Reading the numbers can be very confusing. Presumably pre��sum��a��ble?adj.That can be presumed or taken for granted; reasonable as a supposition: presumable causes of the disaster. most peopleunderstand what averages, percentages, and correlations are, butstatistics might be used in such a way that leads to misinterpretation.An average can only give an accurate picture of a situation if thescores do not vary widely. To illustrate this point, Best invites us to imagine a factory with ninety workers, each earning $40,000 a year; nine managers, each earning $80,000; and a chief executive officer, who brings home--I am somehow hesitant to write "earns"--say $6 million.... That average figure ($103,000) is far removed from either the workers' earnings or the CEO's income. (p. 29) Percentages tend to lend themselves to information that is morecomplicated than one would expect. Percentages can be calculated in thewrong direction to seem impressive. Therefore, deciding which way toproduce a percentage often depends on the side you are on or the pointyou are trying to make. Confusion also occurs when we research acorrelation. Certainly, there can be a relationship between twovariables, but as the relationships become more complex, moving beyondsimple cause and effect, we need to look at the strength of therelationship. For example, B might be caused by A, but due to severalfactors, A does not necessarily cause B. Best tells us how contemporary critics of drug use try to gloss over the issue by declaring that marijuana is a "gateway" drug--that is, marijuana use may not cause heroin addiction, but it might be a gateway.... [However] most heroin addicts have passed through the marijuana gateway, but relatively few of the people who go through that gateway go on to become addicts. (p. 41) Reading graphs can also be confusing. Often the visual proportionsdo not accurately reflect the numbers and many times graphs are createdin a way that pleases the eye and intentionally or unintentionally swaysone's viewpoint. Best speaks of scary numbers, meaning some statistics are meant toinvoke anxiety and fear in order to draw attention to a particularsocial problem. These statistics tend to get a great deal of mediacoverage, more than those reporting good news. The theory is that largenumbers make the problem seem more grave and therefore in need ofimmediate attention. Scary numbers are a common tool used by socialadvocates who "seek to scare us because, they insist, we face realthreats and because we need to be jarred out of our comfortablecomplacency com��pla��cen��cy?n.1. A feeling of contentment or self-satisfaction, especially when coupled with an unawareness of danger, trouble, or controversy.2. An instance of contented self-satisfaction. " (p. 90). Each group competes with the next for ourattention. The public needs to respond to such statistics with somedoubt and decide whether alarm is necessary. Authoritative numbers and magic numbers Magic numbersThe number of neutrons or protons in nuclei which are required to fill major quantum shells. They occur at particle numbers 2, 8, 20, 50, and 82. are also discussed in MoreDamned Lies and Statistics. Authoritative numbers are those researchstatistics reported in reputable, professional, and supposedly reliablesources, especially of the scientific and intellectual communities.Research conducted in these fields is thought to be more impartial andaccurate. However, it is helpful to remember that as these statisticalreports are published to fit within a certain journal or article, theresearch must be condensed con��dense?v. con��densed, con��dens��ing, con��dens��esv.tr.1. To reduce the volume or compass of.2. To make more concise; abridge or shorten.3. Physicsa. , therefore, leaving out some of the research.We must also remember that the research itself has limited resources oftime and money. Even though we may have more confidence in reports foundin authoritative sources, we should question how the study was produced.Magic numbers are those that we rely on to assess and comparesociety's progress in certain areas. They are often fromauthoritative sources and "appear at our culture's faultlines--at those spots where conflict, uncertainty, and anxiety seemparticularly intense, where we feel the need for a firmer foundation onwhich to base our actions" (p. 118). We see these as a means toplace social issues into concrete and objective terms. Standardized testscores are a good example of magic numbers because certain scores serveas a concrete goal, which when met, supplies an answer to the issue ofstudent achievement. Again, we must be careful in accepting thesenumbers, as they are easily manipulated by someone with certaininterests at hand. Best also writes about contentious numbers, which he sees as ameans for people to use for "spinning" and "cherrypicking Cherry Picking1. The act of investors choosing investments that have performed well within another portfolio in anticipation that the trend will continue.2. Relating to bankruptcy proceedings whereby the courts uphold contracts favorable to bankrupt companies, but annul ." Numbers are selected to support a certain issue at acertain time depending on the issue at hand. All other statistics thatare relative to the numbers selected are ignored for the time being. By the end of the book, the reader learns not to take statistics atface value; statistics are calculations, but the interpretation of thesecalculations makes an enormous difference in how the numbers arepresented and how we understand them according to according toprep.1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians.2. In keeping with: according to instructions.3. our own biases andsocial realities. Best suggests that as a society, we should learn howto better read statistics and calls for a statistical literacy Statistical literacy is a term used to describe an individual's or group's ability to understand statistics. Statistical literacy is considered by many to be necessary for citizens to understand material presented in publications such as newspapers, television and the internet. movementthat goes beyond mathematical statistic statistic,n a value or number that describes a series of quantitative observations or measures; a value calculated from a sample.statistica numerical value calculated from a number of observations in order to summarize them. classes. Best suggests teachersof social sciences give lessons on how to actually read statistics anddedicates a few pages at the end of the book to names of sources thatpromote statistical literacy. More Damned Lies and Statistics is a bookthat could be of interest to people from all walks of life and anyprofession. For those in the field of education, it serves as a reminderthat there are several different variables to consider when serving ourstudents. Societal views often shift, and it is important to balancefluctuating data and theories with a consistent purpose. Anyone whoreads this book will look deeply into the true meaning of statistics,how our society directs their outcome, and in turn, how statisticsaffect the direction of our society. Reviewed by Jennifer Ketchum Jennifer Ketchum teaches fifth grade at St. Ann's Academy inWashington, DC.