Neo-Salafi Attacks & New Iran Envoy Hurt Maleki's Electoral Chances.

Neo-Salafi Attacks & New Iran Envoy Hurt Maleki's Electoral Chances. A series of high-profile Sunni/Neo-Salafi attacks, all featuringsuicide bombers more sophisticated than ever before, are causingMaleki's popularity to plummet. Hurting his electoral chancesfurther is the advent of new Iranian Ambassador HassanDana'ei-Fard, and Iraqi born member of the Quds command widelyknown among the country's Ja'faris to be part of Tehran'ssupremacist regime, having worked closely with President MahmoudAhmadi-Nejad and Supreme Leader Ayatullah Ali Khamenei - men nowliterally hated by Iraq's secular Shi'ites as well as SunniArabs, with the secular Kurds being indifferent. The new Iranian ambassador is particularly close to Maleki,according to the Saudi-owned pan-Arab TV al-Arabiya whose Iran expertdescribes the man as "the main liability" for the PM. Thisenvoy is known in Iraq as being a "Safawi" - a reference toremnants of the Turkoman-Persian theocracy which in the 15th century ADruled much of the GME and was converted from Sunnism to Ja'farismby imams from South Lebanon's Jabel Amel region. That theocracy,then at war with the Sunni Ottoman Empire, was ruled by the Safawiddynasty (see rim6IranSafawidsHistoryJun28-04). Before his recent appointment as ambassador, Dana'ei-Fard (aPersian name) had been the man in charge of Iraq in the Quds command. Hewas the person who a few years ago turned a Quds Forces office in Erbil,capital of Kurdistan, into an Iranian consulate. Now, he is consideredin Tehran as viceroy of Iraq. His ranking in Tehran is far superior tothat of his predecessor in Baghdad, Hussein Qomi, a former Quds officer. Many Baghdad analysts say the Iranian regime has made a hugeblunder by sending this man as its ambassador because it clearly showsthe militarised theocracy wants to turn Iraq into a satellite of Iran.This makes Iran far more unpopular in Iraq than the US, not only amongthe Sunnis but mainly in the Ja'fari community which is mostlysecular. Some of these analysts say the Iranian regime's behaviour athome, being watched daily throughout Iraq (where the Ja'faritaqiyah tricks are better known than anywhere else in the Muslim world)and in their country is tending to make the US popular and moreappreciated than in the past. Of particular interest to the Iraqiswatching Iran is the way the IRGC-controlled regime is gettingincreasingly more repressive. This is reminding them of the behaviour ofSaddam's dictatorship, with many beginning to compare the latterless unfavourably than that of Iran. In an interview on the state run al-Iraqiya TV on Jan. 20, Malekisaid 70% of the Ba'th membership was Shi'ite Arab. He said:"The Sunnis will be much more important partners [in Iraq'sdemocratization] this time than at the last election. Yes, there are alot of Sunnis [on the election blacklist] but there aremoreShiites" barred from the March 7 election. In a debate on the US-funded al-Hurra TV on Jan. 29, a prominentAmerican analyst said what frightened the Iranian regime most was thedemocratisation of Iraq. He said Iran was trying to reverse that trend.An APS source in Baghdad on Jan. 30 agreed, saying Tehran preferred tosee a repressive sectarian system in control of Iraq. Neo-Salafi suicide bombers on Jan. 25 hit three top hotels inBaghdad, killing at least 41 people and wounding over 70, inco-ordinated moves to discredit the Maleki government. On Jan. 26,another explosion in Baghdad killed 22 people and wounded 80 others. Inthe CoR, Security & Defence Committee Chairman Hadi al-Ameri, whoheads the Shi'ite Badr Organisation which is part of the SupremeIslamic Iraqi Council (SIIC), on Jan. 26 was quoted by the BBC as sayingthe attacks were the work of al-Qaeda and the Ba'th and stronglydenied an Iranian/Ja'fari role. He said these attacks showed thatal-Qaeda and the Ba'th were weak and politically bankrupt and hitat allegation of an Iranian involvement. The SIIC leads the INA. Iraq's Kurdish Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said: "Thegoal [behind those attacks] is to disrupt the elections and undermineconfidence in the government and it's a purely political operation.These hotels were to be used for [March 7 election] monitors, forpolitical rallies, for meetings and so on - so what is very clear isthat it is a political campaign". Army Lt-Gen Ray Odierno, the chief of the US forces in Iraq, saidal-Qaeda was staging fewer attacks, but focusing on underminingIraqis' confidence in the state, adding: "We've beensuccessful over time at whittling down their capacity to sustain along-term insurgency so they have now transitioned to conducting clearterrorist attacks inside of Iraq to go after the legitimacy of thegovernment". Many had expected a surge in violence ahead of theelections, but the difficulty lies in defending against suicide attacks. Anthony Cordesman, a security analyst at the Centre for Strategicand International Studies in Washington, said that, as the Neo-Salafiextremists had become more fragmented and mobile, it had becomeincreasingly difficult to hunt them down. While there had been progresswith the development of the Iraqi Army, he said, "the year of thepolice never happened. But now the police are absolutely critical tosecuring local areas and it's going to take some years to bringthem to any kind of capability". Joost Hiltermann, an analyst atthe International Crisis Group, said that in the long-run politicalwrangles were more damaging than the bombs. If the political process"breaks down over de-Ba'athification, or whatever, you revertto civil war conditions". Al-Qaeda's Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) on Jan. 27 claimedcredit for the bombings, boasting how its suicide bombers could breachthe extensive Iraqi security, and that even deadlier attacks were tocome. The ISI had claimed credit for all previous attacks including thatof Aug. 19. The three previous multiple bombings - in August, Octoberand December - claimed more than 380 lives. The ISI said: "What iscoming will be tougher on them". An IRGC unit stationed at Iraq's al-Fakkah oilfield along thetwo countries' disputed frontier since Dec. 17 on Jan. 27 pulledback to the Iranian border. This followed bilateral meetings earlier inJanuary. But in Baghdad, experts warned that Iran was preparing toimpose on Iraq a territorial settlement heavily weighted in favour ofTehran. Ali Hassan al-Majid, or "Chemical Ali", a cousin ofSaddam who ordered a poison gas attack on a Kurdish village in northernIraq, was executed by hanging on Jan. 25. Majid, 68, was perhaps themost notorious figure from the former regime to be executed since Saddamwas himself hanged in December 2006.